:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 05/2128Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/2033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Jul, 08
Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 077
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 077/078/079
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  014/018-013/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/25