:Product: 0710RSGA.txt :Issued: 2016 Jul 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 10/0059Z from Region 2564 (N09E51). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 10/0044Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0504Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4159 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jul). III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jul 094 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 092/090/090 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 088 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 015/020-012/012-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/15 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 45/30/20