:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jul,
14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 12/1959Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 12/0553Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 12/0557Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1311 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 092
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  012/015-015/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/20