:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1511Z from Region 2567 (N05E28). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jul,
17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 764 km/s at 15/0858Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 14/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/0200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2438 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 102
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  016/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10