:Product: 0718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/2335Z from Region 2565 (N05W08). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul,
21 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 463 km/s at 17/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/0539Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6229 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 107
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  007/008-010/012-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/35/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/30