:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
24/0620Z from Region 2567 (N05W92). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (25 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (26 Jul) and
expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day
three (27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 24/1453Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 24/1512Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 24/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 210 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26
Jul, 27 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    40/10/01
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 082
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 075/075/070
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  012/012-010/015-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/45/30