:Product: 0728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 28/1958Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 28/1824Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
28/1706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 956 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 070
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  013/015-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/10