:Product: 0729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 29/0827Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 29/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
29/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jul) and quiet levels on
days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 071
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  011/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10