:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/2232Z from Region 2571 (N12W19). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Aug,
10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 08/1935Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 08/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11010 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 096
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  011/012-010/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/25