:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 17/1309Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/2323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 617 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 083
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 085/085/080
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  007/008-009/010-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/40/20