:Product: 0827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Aug,
29 Aug, 30 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 27/0130Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/1317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2334 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (29 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (30
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 084
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 084/084/082
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  006/005-014/025-018/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/35
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/30/20