:Product: 0830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1006Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 Aug) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day two (01 Sep) and likely to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (02 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 30/1858Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 30/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
30/1348Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Aug), unsettled to
active levels on day two (01 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (02 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    05/10/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 100
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  016/018-011/015-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/05