:Product: 0907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 06/2203Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/0138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25205 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 093
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 092/092/090
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10