:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 14/1811Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/1911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2066 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 085
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15