:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep,
26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 23/2351Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
24/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 341 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 085
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 087/088/085
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  008/008-013/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/25