:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/1914Z from Region 2597 (S13W25). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 25/1755Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 25/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 25/1021Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 085
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  014/018-012/012-024/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/50