:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep,
28 Sep, 29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 26/2011Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 26/1958Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 26/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 235 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Sep) and active to minor
storm levels on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 087
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  012/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  012/012-026/040-028/040

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/50/50