:Product: 0930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Oct) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 849 km/s at 29/2144Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 30/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 30/1608Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 74718 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled
to active levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 081
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  022/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  024/030-016/021-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20