:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 13/0901Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 13/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-21 nT at 13/1529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 610 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (14 Oct), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (15 Oct) and unsettled levels on day
three (16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 095
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 095/090/090
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  026/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  025/060-020/025-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           30/05/05
Major-severe storm    25/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/30/25