:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 22/1915Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
22/0711Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/1150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 18601 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and active
to major storm levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 078
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 075/072/072
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  018/024-027/040-032/044

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor Storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/35/45