:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 811 km/s at 25/1757Z. Total
IMF reached 21 nT at 25/1017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -17 nT at 25/1011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 650 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (26 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (28 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 078
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 078/078/076
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  037/060
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  026/040-019/024-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/30/20