:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 740 km/s at 29/0842Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 29/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 29/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 21657 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (30 Oct, 31 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 079
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 080/085/085
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  026/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  013/015-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/20/15