:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 696 km/s at 29/2359Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 30/1436Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 30/0135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10385 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(02 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 076
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  018/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  012/015-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20