:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (02 Nov, 03
Nov) and expected to be very low on day three (04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 01/1704Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 01/1256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/0942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 18601 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Nov,
03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 077
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 076/074/072
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  008/008-007/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/30