:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 332 km/s at 07/0752Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
07/0759Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/2137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1317 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 077
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  014/020-010/012-011/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/20