:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 870 km/s at 25/0406Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 25/0251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 25/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9557 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 081
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 082/083/083
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  023/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  015/015-010/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/05
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10