:Product: 1130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/2338Z from Region 2615 (S08E51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 30/0142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
30/1715Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
30/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22208 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 084
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10