:Product: 1203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 323 km/s at 03/1357Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6638 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 085
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 085/080/080
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  008/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/10