:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0607Z from Region 2615 (S07W33). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec,
07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 05/1921Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
05/0227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3396 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 083
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 085/082/080
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  008/008-011/015-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/35
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/30