:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 734 km/s at 09/0511Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 09/1430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 09/1048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4227 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 073
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  020/024-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10