:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/1715Z from Region 2615 (S06, L=141). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 10/0307Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 09/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 09/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10713 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (13 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 072
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 070/070/073
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10