:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 602 km/s at 14/1054Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1538Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
14/0908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10187 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 072
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05