:Product: 1222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 22/0528Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 21/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 21/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8093 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Dec, 24 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 075
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 073/073/072
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  018/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  011/012-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/20