:Product: 1225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 743 km/s at 25/1851Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 25/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/0113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25725 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 073
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec 073/073/075
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  014/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  012/010-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10