:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (16 Feb, 17
Feb) and expected to be very low on day three (18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 14/2347Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 15/1545Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/1512Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 073
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 071/070/069
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  011/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  014/018-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/30