:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 392 km/s at 07/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 488 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 068
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  008/008-015/018-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/40
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/55/55