:Product: 0418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 313 km/s at 18/0235Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
18/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1543Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4403 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (21 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Apr 071
Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  008/012-007/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/10
Minor Storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    45/35/10