:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr,
24 Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 584 km/s at 21/2348Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
22/1129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/1214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 24055 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 076
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10