:Product: 0425RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 25/1725Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
24/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/2301Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11840 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (27 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (28 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 071
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  007/008-010/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/10
Minor Storm           05/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    20/35/10