:Product: 0511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 10/2200Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/0755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/1812Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 71659 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 070
Predicted   12 May-14 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  007/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/10