:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 495 km/s at 13/0001Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
13/1348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/0538Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13623 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16
May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 071
Predicted   14 May-16 May 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        13 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10