:Product: 0531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun,
02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 31/2100Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 31/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
31/1705Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 579 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Jun, 02
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 077
Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        31 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  018/025-019/025-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/55/45