:Product: 0601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jun 01 2300 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jun,
03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 772 km/s at 01/1934Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 31/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 31/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2993 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jun) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 075
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun 075/075/074
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  022/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  019/025-011/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/45/40