:Product: 0603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (04 Jun, 05
Jun) and expected to be very low on day three (06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 822 km/s at 03/1611Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/2142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 26889 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Jun, 05 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 074
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 073/072/070
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  009/010-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/10