:Product: 0616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 312 km/s at 16/1607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 508 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 071
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  005/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/25