:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 19/1101Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 18/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/0517Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 077
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 078/078/076
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  020/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15