:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 11/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 11/1045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/1010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 073
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10