:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 515 km/s at 14/0231Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 072
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15