:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 03/1954Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 02/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0858Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Aug,
05 Aug, 06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 070
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  007/008-009/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/30