:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 416 km/s at 05/2207Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/0226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
06/1438Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 069
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15